ANALISIS DAN PENGGUNAAN SIMULASI MONTE CARLO DALAM PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN

THE ANALYSIS AND USE OF MONTE CARLO SIMULATION IN DECISION MAKING

Abstract

A Monte Carlo simulation is a tool to predict different outcomes and probabilities using random variables. This method is often used to solve complex problems that have a lot of risks and uncertainties. This article uses qualitative descriptive research that integrates past significant studies in order to provide an understanding in the effectiveness during a decision-making process. The Monte Carlo simulation has four stages, where it creates a distribution for the variables needed, then each variable has their own cumulative probability range, then determines the random number interval for each variable and generates random numbers, and finally analyzes the outputs to identify the range of possible outcomes and possibilities. Ultimately, this simulation can assess risks, predict forecasts based on uncertain factors, optimize models by simulating different scenarios, as well as conduct complex analysis. Due to its capability, the Monte Carlo simulation is often used by many when making a decision about investment, business, or when optimizing supply chains and logistics. Therefore, the goal of this article is to explain when to appropriately use the Monte Carlo simulation based on the complexity and characteristics of the problem at hand.

Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation, decision making, probability